2014年7月6日星期日

The Real denotation of the Fire Phone

The Real denotation of the Fire Phone

Relatives encompass been asking my view of the modern Amazon Fire Phone, but I’ve had a lot in life of harass answering. My originally effect was overwhelmingly blah. I’ll stay odd to try it, and maybe so therefore I’ll feel better in relation to it. But desirable at the present it seems to me like a bag of remarkable facial appearance slightly than a coherent produce. (Quick, come again? Perform faux 3D imaging and a time of on the house mail order shipping encompass featuring in frequent? Utterly nothing.) Plus it’s obtainable from just lone movable operator, and the pricing isn’t low an adequate amount of to prevail on a person excited. I’m delighted anytime a key company tries to innovate, but I can’t imagine this phone having a enormous bang on the marketplace.

Many others are neutral to downright hostile. BGR wrote, “Amazon innovated featuring in all the insult seats.” And CNN understood, “if you're fortunate with your iPhone 5s or else Galaxy S5, there's rebuff compelling intelligence to change”

So why did Amazon build this produce?  Ben Thompson made a agreeable project with the aim of the phone is designed to strengthen Amazon’s link with its lucrative Prime customers.I’m sure thing that’s part of the motivation. But if that’s the just goal, wouldn’t you worth the phone very low to grab added customers, the way you did Kindle? And in the same way as Ben himself prominent, near are many other things you may well perform to added quickly recruit Prime customers. Designed for model, many of the Fire Phone apps may well encompass been released unconnectedly designed for machine and iOS. Wouldn’t with the aim of stay a better way to perform Prime customers? Slightly than difficult to speed relatives away from their iPhones and Galaxies, why not truthful co-opt them through more or less apps with the aim of run on their current phones? Come again? Amazon’s liability is like promotion your own line of sofas in the same way as a way to distribute slipcovers.

And so I pass away back to wondering why Amazon did it. Imagine you’re Jeff Bezos. You encompass a literally enduring link with Apple and many other phone companies by the instant; why corner by hand into their blood enemy designed for a produce with the aim of with the aim of won’t move the needle featuring in sales?

To me, the Fire Phone reeks of test. I think Amazon’s taxing something, and the test is vital an adequate amount of to splurge a ton of money and create a lot in life of competitive hostility. In the same way as thinking in relation to it a lot in life and difficult to look by the humankind through Amazon’s eyes, I think I can speculate why the Fire Phone would stay tactically vital to Amazon. I believe it’s not in relation to the phone marketplace; it’s in relation to the evolution of movable export and the expectations of Amazon itself.

To explain why, I encompass to donate a trace of background on movable export. Designed for online retailers, the single the largest part frustrating event in relation to movable tools, especially smartphones, is with the aim of it relatives using it don’t bad deal a lot in life of stuff. They’ll browse featuring in your labyrinth lay up and avail yourself of your shopping app, but as it comes stage to bad deal they often don’t firm footing. The industry canon of thumb is with the aim of a agreeable export place on a individual processor willpower convert in relation to 3% of shoppers to buyers (in other lexis, designed for each 100 online shoppers you take home three sales). The conversion rate designed for smartphones is a third of with the aim of, in relation to 1%.

Featuring in an industry with the aim of would eradicate to enrich conversion by a tenth of a peak, with the aim of droplet from 3% to 1% is horrifying. Many export companies encompass spent years difficult to patch up it, and through incredible effort and wary experimentation it is indeed likely to intensify the movable conversion rate. Featuring in my day of the week work by UserTesting that’s lone of the things I help companies perform. But it’s a sluggish process of incremental fixes, and featuring in the meantime movable labyrinth avail yourself of is growing explosively. Here’s the nightmare scenario designed for an online retailer:

—What if the subsequently generation of internet users moves to smartphones and wearables earlier than we can picture available how to patch up movable shopping?

—What if, in the same way as relatives move to movable, the conversion rate designed for our entirety commerce drops from 3% to 1%?

—And the largest part unsettling designed for a kind leader like Amazon, come again? If the low conversion rate on movable is a sign with the aim of the online lay up itself is not a agreeable fit designed for smartphones? Come again? If more or less modern movable tools or else app makes online shopping obsolete, truthful in the same way as online food encompass been making traditional retail food obsolete? Come again? If Amazon itself is the subsequently huge tech fossil?

Don’t laugh. Platform transitions featuring in tech generally take home the old kind leaders obsolete. Read in relation to Lotus Development or else Digital Equipment Corporation if you don’t believe it.

With the aim of existential risk is the kind of event I’d expect Jeff Bezos to fear in relation to. It’s a enormous substitute with the aim of comes from an unexpected direction and may well nick the kindness available of his commerce. What’s worse, by the stage the risk becomes obvious it’ll probably stay too minute to respond to it.

So the stage to work is at the present. Amazon needs to dive into movable and picture available come again? The shopping experience would look like if you built it into a phone from the ground up.

If that’s Amazon’s motivation, so therefore the Fire Phone is really all in relation to Firefly, Amazon’s instant-buying tools. I think the question being tested is whether you can completely trade a labyrinth lay up with a by the book configured phone. Come again? If, as a replacement for of leaving to an online lay up to bad deal something, your phone itself became the lay up? Come again? If, as a replacement for of searching designed for the event you mean to bad deal, you may well truthful take a picture of it, or else read quickly its barcode, or else say its choose? 

Amazon all over the place. Futurist Paul Saffo situate it this way: “Firefly allows Amazon to invade each lay up featuring in each shopping mall on the planet and corner it into a de facto showroom designed for Amazon” (link). I’d pass away even extend. I’d say Firefly is an effort to corner the whole humankind into an Amazon lay up.

If Amazon makes with the aim of phone originally, it takes an alternative huge chunk available of Walmart and Target and eBay and each other retailer available near, corporeal or else virtual. If someone to boot makes it originally, Amazon itself is featuring in mortal danger.

I think that’s why Amazon had to take home a phone. It needs to test and song the integration of movable hardware and software featuring in the purchasing process, and with the aim of would not stay likely on someone else’s phone. It additionally doesn’t mean to share the data it’ll amass with several other phone vendor (especially not lone united with Google), since with the aim of may well stay the recipe to the expectations of the entirety company. 

From this perspective, the time-out of the Fire Phone proclamation makes added get the impression. You need to toss featuring in a only some sexy facial appearance, like the semi-3D screen, to interest more or less users. The worth doesn’t encompass to stay low for the reason that Amazon doesn’t mean to wholesale a gazillion phones. Lone carrier featuring in lone land is an adequate amount of for the reason that Amazon’s not pushing designed for humankind domination yet. It needs truthful an adequate amount of users to donate it a robust experimental foundation. So therefore it’ll observe, and it’ll realize, and it’ll fine-tune the test, and it’ll realize more or less added.

And so therefore, as it gets the formula desirable, we’ll see to it that the real Amazon phone. I’d expect it to stay added violently priced and much added broadly obtainable. I wouldn’t stay surprised to see to it that Amazon additionally emancipation Firefly apps designed for other phones by the same stage. By with the aim of peak Amazon’s priority won’t stay secrecy, it’ll stay rapid domination.

Or else maybe the test willpower fail. Maybe Amazon willpower realize with the aim of near is rebuff magical way to corner a smartphone into a lay up. Featuring in with the aim of project it’ll quietly take home the phone disappear, engrave rancid the losses, and move on to other priorities. Hey, it’s truthful money, and we all know how Jeff Bezos feels in relation to with the aim of.



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